Overview
- The World Gold Council projects gold will trade roughly plus or minus 5 percent around $4,100 per ounce in the second half of 2026 and says prices could reach $4,500 to $5,000 if key catalysts materialize.
- The council identifies three catalysts that would drive a sustained rise: worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a reversal in interest‑rate expectations, and increased long‑term investor allocations.
- Central banks have been a persistent source of demand, buying about 1,000 tonnes a year since 2022, and the WGC estimates an extra 20 to 30 tonnes of reserve purchases would raise the price by roughly 1 percent.
- India raised its gold import duty from 6 percent to 15 percent in April 2026 and the WGC estimates that move could reduce local jewellery, bar and coin demand by about 50 to 60 tonnes, or roughly 10 percent year‑on‑year.
- After a late‑January price spike and a sharp correction in H1, market participants say short‑term moves will track U.S. inflation, Fed signals, real yields and the dollar and many strategists recommend buying meaningful weakness in physicals, ETFs or miners.