Overview
- The two-phase vote on April 23 and 29, with counting on May 4, will decide control of West Bengal’s 294-seat assembly.
- Recent surveys diverge, with Votevibe–CNN–News18 projecting a big TMC win at about 184–194 seats, while Matrix–IANS shows a tighter race at 155–170 for TMC versus 100–115 for BJP.
- The BJP has escalated its campaign, with Amit Shah set to stay in the state for 15 days and senior leaders managing nine zones and a dedicated narrative team.
- Mamata Banerjee is contesting Bhabanipur against BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, and in Nandigram the TMC has fielded Pabitra Kar, a recent BJP defector once close to Adhikari.
- The split in poll margins matters in India’s first-past-the-post system, where small shifts in vote share can flip dozens of seats and reshape the state’s balance of power.