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Webb Observations Eliminate 2032 Lunar-Impact Risk From Asteroid 2024 YR4

Precision NIRCam tracking in February enabled a refined orbit solution that shows a safe lunar flyby.

Overview

  • NASA and ESA now assess zero chance of a Moon impact, projecting a closest approach of about 21,200 kilometers on December 22, 2032.
  • James Webb Space Telescope detections on February 18 and 26 provided high-precision astrometry against a well-mapped Gaia star field.
  • Initial short-arc calculations after the late-2024 discovery had indicated roughly a 4.3% probability of a lunar strike.
  • The object, about 60 meters across, poses no known threat to Earth for at least the next century according to prior assessments.
  • A coordinated effort by NASA’s CNEOS/JPL, ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre, Johns Hopkins APL and Webb operations produced the update, with continued monitoring planned.