Overview
- ESA says the roughly 60‑meter object will pass the Moon by more than 20,000 kilometers in December 2032, eliminating a strike.
- Two earlier‑than‑expected James Webb NIRCam detections in February 2026, referenced to Gaia star positions, enabled the refined orbit solution.
- The asteroid had briefly carried an Earth impact probability as high as 3.1 percent per NASA’s JPL before later analyses removed that risk.
- A lunar impact probability near 4.3 percent persisted while the object was unobservable, but the new measurements now rule it out.
- Discovered on December 27, 2024 and once topping ESA and NASA risk lists, 2024 YR4 no longer poses a hazard, and the hoped‑for lunar‑impact science opportunity is off the table.