Overview
- NASA’s JPL/CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC now project a Dec. 22, 2032 lunar pass of about 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers), eliminating any impact probability.
- Webb spotted 2024 YR4 with NIRCam on Feb. 18 and Feb. 26, 2026, using Gaia‑mapped background stars to extract precise astrometry from one of the faintest asteroid detections ever recorded.
- Officials stress the update reflects improved measurements rather than a change in trajectory, resolving uncertainties that persisted while the asteroid was unobservable since spring 2025.
- The object is estimated at roughly 174–220 feet (about 60 meters); earlier odds peaked near 3.1% for Earth and 4.3% for the Moon, which are now reduced to zero, with no significant Earth risk over the next century.
- Discovered by the ATLAS survey in late 2024, 2024 YR4’s refined path highlights effective international coordination and points to growing planetary‑defense capabilities alongside upcoming NEO Surveyor and Rubin Observatory efforts.