Overview
- NASA’s JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre recalculated the orbit using JWST observations captured on Feb. 18 and 26, 2026.
- Updated solutions now place the Dec. 22, 2032 close approach at roughly 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) from the Moon, reducing the impact probability to zero.
- JWST’s NIRCam achieved one of the faintest asteroid detections on record by referencing Gaia-mapped background stars to pinpoint 2024 YR4’s position.
- First spotted by the ATLAS survey in December 2024, the asteroid initially carried up to a 3.1% Earth impact chance and later about a 4.3% lunar risk before improved data removed both.
- Estimated at 174–220 feet across, 2024 YR4 poses no significant Earth hazard over the next century, underscoring JWST’s emerging role in planetary defense as dedicated surveys ramp up.