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Webb Data Confirms Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Safely Fly Past the Moon in 2032

High-precision Webb images from February let CNEOS refine the asteroid’s path to eliminate the last remaining impact odds.

A green circle marks the observed position of YR4 determined with Webb, versus the red circle indicating an orbit that could have led to a lunar impact.
This animation shows the uncertainty prior to the new Webb observations versus how close YR4 will actually come to the moon.
Image

Overview

  • NASA says Webb’s NIRCam captured 2024 YR4 on Feb. 18 and Feb. 26, enabling a sharply improved orbital solution.
  • JPL’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies now projects a Dec. 22, 2032 lunar pass about 13,200 miles above the surface.
  • Earlier calculations that once put lunar impact odds above 4% in 2025 have been retired with the new orbit.
  • Earth impact risk, which briefly peaked near 3.1% after the 2024 discovery, had already been reduced to effectively zero.
  • Webb-based analyses led by Johns Hopkins APL estimate the asteroid could be nearly 300 feet long, with ground follow-up slated to begin in 2028.