Weaker USDA Ratings and Fund Liquidation Put Downward Pressure on U.S. Grain Prices

Overview

• This week NASS reported initial crop condition ratings that were below expectations, with U.S. corn at 67% good or excellent and soybeans at 66% good or excellent.
• CFTC Commitment of Traders data show managed money sharply cut exposure, trimming corn net longs by 87,850 contracts to about 205,504 and reducing soybean longs by 18,252 to about 189,552, which has amplified price swings.
• USDA FGIS export tallies and inspections continue to show sizable corn shipments, including 1.728 million metric tons for the week ending May 28 and marketing‑year corn exports near 61.94 MMT, giving some demand support despite weaker ratings.
• Livestock markets were volatile as live cattle rallied Monday but fell back Tuesday, and hogs moved from weakness into a Tuesday rally after cutout values and national base hog prices rose alongside rising slaughter counts.
• The near‑term outlook will hinge on fund positioning, short‑term weather in the Corn Belt, global crop revisions and biosecurity risks such as the recent New World screwworm case near the U.S. border that could pressure packing and trade flows.