Weak U.S. Old‑Crop Corn Bookings and Large Soybean Sales Reshape Near‑Term Grain Risk

Fund flows and private China purchases have left prices sensitive to the August NASS Crop Production report because new U.S. yield data could quickly alter market positioning.

Overview

USDA weekly export sales showed a marketing‑year low in old‑crop U.S. corn commitments at 116,740 metric tons, signaling softer immediate corn demand and tightening near‑term price support.
Private exporter announcements recorded large soybean sales to China, most recently 238,000 metric tons for 2026/27, reinforcing strong forward demand for new‑crop beans.
CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week to Aug. 4 show managed‑money added about 13,547 contracts to corn net longs while speculators cut roughly 29,535 contracts from soybean net longs, amplifying divergent price pressure.
Corn futures are trading near unchanged with a national cash average around $4.09 per bushel and soybeans are mixed with a cash average near $11.33 per bushel as traders weigh shipments and fund moves.
Large July shipments out of Brazil and Reuters survey expectations for U.S. yields (about 182.4 bpa for corn and 52.9 bpa for soybeans) mean the Aug. NASS report will be the key near‑term driver for prices and for farmers, exporters and global buyers.