Overview
- Friday's jobs report showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a surprise that pushed the market's probability of a September Fed rate hike down from about 57% to roughly 42–45% according to CME FedWatch.
- That shift knocked the dollar and real yields lower, helping gold jump more than 7% for the week to trade in the mid‑$4,300s and sending silver to double‑digit weekly gains.
- UBS kept its $5,000 per ounce target for the first half of 2027, arguing that lower real yields, dollar weakness, and steady central‑bank demand underpin a medium‑term bullish case while warning of near‑term setbacks.
- Official buying and Asian flows have been a key price floor, with World Gold Council data showing the People's Bank of China has added gold for 21 consecutive months and bought about 20 tons in July.
- The rally now hinges on US inflation releases, Chinese economic data, West Asia and oil developments, and technical resistance near the declining 20‑week moving average that could turn this move into either a sustained recovery or a rebound inside a longer downtrend.