Overview
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, a much smaller gain than economists expected, and Thursday's report prompted markets to cut the chance of a September Fed rate increase by roughly half.
- Traders reacted quickly to the jobs shock, lifting spot gold above $4,100 and trading near $4,180 per ounce in early July as interest‑rate expectations and real yields eased.
- The international move translated into higher retail prices in South Asia, with reported July 3 rates near Rs 14,700 per gram in India and Rs 437,000 per tola in Pakistan.
- Technical indicators show this is a short‑term rebound inside a broader corrective downtrend that began after April's peak, with a recent cycle low near $3,942 still weighing on the market.
- Longer term support remains price‑insensitive sovereign demand: the World Gold Council said central banks bought 19 tonnes in April and major banks still forecast $4,900–$6,000 targets if ETF flows, real yields and Fed signals align.