Overview
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released July 2 showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June and revised April and May down by a combined 74,000, while unemployment fell to 4.2% as labor-force participation slipped to 61.5% and wage growth stayed near 3.5% year over year.
- Traders rapidly re-priced policy bets after the report, pushing the market-implied chance of a July rate hike to about 8.5% and trimming the probability of a September hike to roughly 29.5%.
- Bitcoin rallied on the weaker-than-expected jobs print, reclaiming the $60,000–$61,000 zone and reaching an intraday high near $62,056 as investors priced in a looser near-term path for rates.
- Analysts are split on durability: some, like Iggy Ioppe, warn the Fed could treat the miss as noise because unemployment and wages remain firm, while traders and strategists such as Matt Mena say a sustained hold above $65,000 would validate a further crypto rally.
- Thin trading around the Independence Day holiday could amplify short-term moves in crypto and risk assets, so durable market direction will depend on Fed commentary and upcoming inflation and economic data.