Overview
- The CBO projects federal debt held by the public rising from about $31 trillion today to roughly $56 trillion within a decade, reaching about 120% of GDP by 2036 and eclipsing the post‑World War II record by 2030.
- Annual deficits are forecast to total $24.4 trillion over the next ten years, exceed $3 trillion by 2036, and average about 6.1% of GDP.
- Net interest payments are expected to more than double from $970 billion in 2025 to $2.1 trillion by 2036, and the CRFB warns of a potential debt spiral if average interest rates outpace economic growth.
- The CBO estimates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds roughly $4.7 trillion to debt through 2035, while recent policy and economic changes together increase projected borrowing by about $1.4 trillion despite tariff revenues.
- The CRFB flags key pressure points, including projected insolvency of the Highway Trust Fund around fiscal 2028 and the Social Security retirement trust fund around 2032, and says alternative scenarios could push debt near 131% of GDP.