Overview
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has trimmed post‑meeting guidance and said the Fed will prioritize price stability, signaling a move away from routine previews of future rate moves.
- The Fed left the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 17 meeting and raised the median projection to about 3.8%, with nine of 18 officials indicating at least one hike this year.
- Warsh told the ECB Sintra forum on July 1 that inflation risks 'have come down' but declined to give forward guidance or submit a personal dot, a stance that helped push Bitcoin above $60,000 and gold past $4,050.
- Governor Christopher Waller publicly defended forward guidance on July 6 as a useful tool when used flexibly, highlighting an internal Fed debate over whether less public signaling will aid or slow policy transmission.
- Prediction and futures markets quickly repriced the outlook: Polymarket and Kalshi place roughly three‑quarters odds or higher on zero rate cuts in 2026, and traders now await mid‑July inflation prints and the next FOMC window for further clarity.