Overview
- Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, completing his confirmation and beginning leadership of the central bank.
- Since his installation, traders and futures markets have largely abandoned bets on near-term rate cuts and now price a real chance of higher policy rates by late 2026, lifting short- and long-term Treasury yields.
- Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed a shift in the committee's tone with the removal of easing language and several members dissenting in favor of firmer policy if inflation stays elevated.
- Warsh has signaled a Greenspan-style approach that would trim forward guidance and emphasize balance-sheet tools, a stance that could clash with the Fed's divided governors and with Jerome Powell remaining a voting member.
- The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and the next inflation reports are the immediate tests of Warsh's agenda and will shape borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including mortgage rates and loan costs.