Overview
- At the June 17–18 FOMC meeting the Fed held the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% while the committee raised its median 2026 projection to about 3.8% and nine of 18 officials signaled at least one hike this year.
- June nonfarm payrolls showed just 57,000 jobs added, a much smaller-than-expected print that cooled concerns about rising wage-driven inflation.
- On July 1 at the ECB Sintra forum Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks "have come down," a softer tone that markets read as reducing the chance of an immediate rate increase.
- Investors quickly trimmed odds of near-term hikes and moved money into risk and precious-metal assets, lifting Bitcoin back above $60,000 and pushing gold past $4,050 and silver higher.
- Warsh’s decision not to submit a personal dot and his shorter, data-dependent communications keep policy ambiguous, so prices remain exposed to coming jobs and inflation reports and to any renewed FOMC hawkish signals.