Overview
- The FOMC meeting on June 17 kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% but signaled a tighter stance on inflation.
- Chair Kevin Warsh removed routine forward guidance, declined to publish his own rate forecast, and shortened the post-meeting statement.
- Warsh announced five internal task forces to review communications, regulatory scope, balance-sheet operations, and data practices.
- Investors and major firms quickly repriced risk and forecasts, with some banks moving to multiple quarter-point hikes in 2026 as yields and equity volatility shifted.
- Markets will look to May's PCE inflation report and Warsh's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on July 14 before concluding whether the Fed will raise rates this year.