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Warsh Edges Ahead in Fed Chair Betting as Hassett Vows Fed Independence

Adviser pushback shifted betting odds toward Kevin Warsh after Kevin Hassett said the president would have no weight in rate decisions.

Overview

  • President Trump named Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as his leading candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
  • On CBSFace the Nation, Hassett said Trump’s views would carry “no weight” with the FOMC and that policy would be based on data and committee votes.
  • Kalshi on Monday showed Warsh at 47% and Hassett at 41% after CNBC reported resistance to Hassett from people close to Trump.
  • Reporting describes concerns from advisers and market figures that Hassett is too close to the president, with JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon seen signaling support for Warsh at a private event.
  • The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last week to a 3.5%–3.75% target range, providing the policy backdrop as markets track the succession contest.