Overview
- Barclays on Monday became the latest major brokerage to predict no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, citing the Iran conflict’s hit to energy prices, with CME FedWatch showing about 79% odds of no change by year-end.
- New York Fed President John Williams said Monday he sees inflation near 3% this year and rising risks from supply shocks, and prediction markets have trimmed June cut odds to roughly 2%–4%.
- ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir wrote Monday that a June rate hike is all but inevitable as energy costs feed through the eurozone economy, and traders now price several increases this year.
- The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters points to inflation averaging about 2.7% in 2026 before easing toward target, reinforcing officials’ warnings about second-round price effects from energy.
- Households and firms face higher fuel and shipping costs with oil above $100 and U.S. gasoline over $4 a gallon, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the price surge as a short-term blip.