Overview
- Traders have embraced the “NACHO” trade, short for “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens,” to signal they do not expect the vital waterway to reopen soon.
- Brent crude still trades above $100 a barrel and more than 38% above pre-war levels, while war-risk insurance for Hormuz transits remains about eight times normal after peaking near 2.5% of a ship’s value.
- The U.S. launched “Project Freedom” to escort stranded ships then paused it, and a Wall Street Journal report said Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have since lifted basing and overflight limits that had constrained the mission.
- Fresh U.S.–Iran exchanges of fire this week kept a fragile ceasefire in doubt, even as President Trump said it still holds and warned of heavier strikes if talks fail.
- Beyond oil, investors are paying more for short‑term borrowing and yield curves have flattened, reflecting concern that a longer energy shock could push up prices and cool growth even as stock indexes stay near records.