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Wall Street Reprices Alphabet After I/O, Citing AI User Gains and Cloud Backlog

Analysts say strong I/O user metrics and a roughly $460 billion Google Cloud backlog create a clearer path to AI monetization and make coming earnings the decisive test for profitability.

Overview

  • Bank of America reiterated a Buy with a $430 price target and Wells Fargo raised its target to $435 after Google I/O and Q1 results, reflecting renewed analyst confidence in Alphabet’s AI strategy.
  • Google's April 29 Q1 report showed $109.9 billion in revenue and $5.11 EPS with Google Cloud up about 63% and a backlog near $460 billion, figures analysts cite as evidence of durable enterprise demand.
  • I/O disclosures gave concrete user signals that analysts highlighted: AI Overviews at about 2.5 billion users, AI Mode at roughly 1 billion users, and Gemini monthly active users rising to about 900 million.
  • Analysts warn near-term risks are real because Alphabet plans a large 2026 capital spending program that is forecast to meaningfully reduce free cash flow and because it is still unclear if AI-native queries will monetize more than traditional search.
  • The next material test is coming earnings; analysts say Q3 and subsequent quarters must show the conversion of user engagement and Cloud backlog into sustained revenue and profit growth before the market fully rewards the AI thesis.