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Wall Street Reaffirms Microsoft’s AI Thesis After Sharp Selloff

Azure grew 39% with a $625 billion backlog that gives multi‑year visibility.

Overview

  • Bernstein, which reiterated an Outperform rating and a $641 price target Monday, said current Azure margin pressure reflects a short lag between AI data‑center spending and revenue.
  • A new KeyBanc survey of value‑added resellers found production use of Copilot up 14 percentage points since Q4, with nearly half now running the tool in live environments.
  • Microsoft beat in the latest quarter with EPS of $4.14 on $81.27 billion in revenue as Azure rose 39% year over year and commercial remaining performance obligations reached about $625 billion.
  • Shares have fallen roughly 25% to 29% from last year’s peak and trade near $370, while many analysts keep Buy or Overweight ratings with average targets around $580 to $600.
  • Microsoft is shifting Copilot to paid plans and expanding AI capacity, including a $10 billion buildout in Japan through 2029, moves aimed at converting demand and easing supply constraints.