Overview
- Tesla is scheduled to report Q2 delivery and energy figures on July 2, and Cantor Fitzgerald models about 397,414 deliveries, a slightly below‑consensus read that relies on a strong European recovery.
- European registration data show a sharp rebound for Tesla, with May registrations up roughly 108% year‑over‑year and analysts citing Europe as the primary driver of any Q2 gains.
- Cantor forecasts Rivian will deliver about 10,234 vehicles in Q2 even after beginning R2 deliveries, and the company met its end‑of‑June promise to show U.S. R2 reservation holders an ordering‑window estimate.
- Cantor expects Lucid to rebound to roughly 5,170 Q2 deliveries as recalled Gravity SUVs are returned to customers, but the company’s recovery depends on recent leadership changes and planned U.S. cost cuts.
- Analysts say near‑term vehicle volumes matter less to some investors than second‑half catalysts such as autonomy rollouts, Optimus/robotics plans and new plant ramps that will determine whether these firms hit 2026 growth targets.