Overview
- Stocks were little changed Friday, with the Dow up 0.1%, the S&P 500 up 0.05% and the Nasdaq down 0.22%, capping the worst week since November for all three major indexes.
- January consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year, easing Treasury yields and nudging market odds of a June Fed rate cut to about 52%, according to CME FedWatch.
- AI disruption worries kept tech volatile as heavyweight names dragged the Nasdaq, though Applied Materials jumped 8.1% on stronger results tied to AI investment.
- The rally since Jan. 20, 2025 remains sizable through Feb. 11, with the Dow up ~15%, the S&P 500 ~16% and the Nasdaq ~18%, even as the Shiller CAPE sits near 40.35.
- Analysts warn deteriorating earnings quality and tariff uncertainty pose key downside risks, recalling the S&P 500’s 10.5% two‑day slide after last April’s tariff reveal and New York Fed research linking the 2018–19 China tariffs to weaker corporate performance.