Overview
- Polling for the Welsh Parliament (the Senedd) shows Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in front, with Labour down at roughly 10–17% and a recent forecast putting it near 12 of 96 seats.
- Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is cast as the likely beneficiary of the shift, with observers calling him the favorite for first minister if Plaid turns polling into wins.
- Identity now predicts votes in Wales, as researchers find Welsh-only and Welsh-first voters moving toward Plaid Cymru while British-only identifiers tend to back Reform UK.
- Concerns about devolved services, including reports of an NHS Wales in crisis and slipping school results, are pushing many voters to consider alternatives to Labour.
- Local Labour figures describe Keir Starmer’s Westminster party as toxic on the doorstep in places like Neath, stoking fears of third-place finishes and a break with a century of dominance.