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Wahab Holds Narrow Early Lead in East Bay Special Election After Heavy Outside Spending

Heavy AIPAC‑linked independent expenditures have turned the close, unfinished special race into a national test of Democratic direction.

Overview

  • Early official Alameda County returns posted after Tuesday’s voting show state Sen. Aisha Wahab leading Melissa Hernandez by about 32,149 votes to 30,457, but more ballots will be counted on scheduled follow-up dates and the outcome is not final.
  • The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Eric Swalwell’s term through January and both Wahab and Hernandez will face each other again in the November general election for the full two‑year term.
  • Federal Election Commission filings show millions of dollars in independent spending favoring Hernandez from AIPAC‑affiliated groups and allied super PACs, with reporting indicating several million dollars were directed at opposing Wahab.
  • Campaigns and outside groups have filed competing complaints and raised questions about coordinated social‑media activity and undisclosed support, prompting FEC scrutiny and local election‑officials to confirm additional tallies will be released later this month.
  • Low turnout and a high share of mail ballots in the 14th District concentrated the impact of late mail and digital ads, and observers say the result will be watched as a measure of outside donors’ power and the broader progressive‑moderate split inside the Democratic Party.