Overview
- Vistra's shares, which trade around $151–$154 in early September 2026, sit about 30% below the Sept. 22, 2025 record high and have drifted lower through 2026 as the market re-rates merchant power names.
- The company reported a roughly 30% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $1.77 billion in Q2 2026, and management said 2027 guidance excludes contributions from recent deals that could add about $700 million.
- Vistra has closed the Cogentrix acquisition that adds roughly 5,500 MW of natural-gas capacity and has signed long-term PPAs with Meta for about 2,600 MW and AWS for about 1,200 MW.
- Concrete near-term headwinds include the early-2025 Moss Landing battery fires that removed major storage capacity, PJM’s proposed capacity-price rule changes and softer ERCOT forward prices that pressure cash flow.
- A $6.5 billion share buyback and a $1 billion commitment to the Helix digital-infrastructure JV with NVIDIA and KKR support a bullish case, but analyst price targets remain dispersed with an average near $217 and some much higher.