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Virginia Voters Approve New Map That Could Give Democrats Up to Four House Seats

Legal appeals plus a Florida special session will test whether those gains stick.

Overview

  • Following Tuesday's 51.5% to 48.5% referendum, Virginians approved a constitutional change that pauses the bipartisan map commission and lets the Democratic-led legislature use a new map through 2030.
  • The plan shifts the delegation from a 6–5 Democratic edge to about 10 Democratic-leaning districts, and Inside Elections moved four GOP-held seats toward Democrats, including the 1st and 5th to solid Democratic.
  • Republicans vowed to fight the measure in court, and the Virginia Supreme Court, which let the vote proceed, is still weighing challenges that could block or alter the amendment.
  • The campaign drew extraordinary money and star power, with the pro-map side raising roughly $64–65 million and nearly $100 million spent overall by outside groups, as Barack Obama, Hakeem Jeffries, Donald Trump and Mike Johnson rallied voters.
  • Florida’s legislature meets in a special session next week to consider new maps that could add two to five Republican-friendly seats, and a pending U.S. Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling could open the door to more mid-decade redraws in the South, a break from the usual once-a-decade process.