Overview
- Public Policy Polling reported a 43–40 Moody lead after Wednesday's release of a Vindman-commissioned survey of 574 registered voters fielded April 2–3 with a ±4.1% margin of error.
- Methodology critics noted the poll weighted responses to voters’ recalled 2024 presidential choice, yielding a Trump +13 sample that can misstate turnout compared with Florida’s voter file.
- Recent independent surveys from Emerson College and the University of North Florida using likely-voter screens found Moody ahead by 7 to 8 points.
- The PPP memo portrays Moody as little-known to many voters, with 43% offering no opinion of her and approval roughly split among those who do, and it says undecided voters view President Trump negatively.
- Race handicappers still see Republicans favored, with Cook rating the seat Safe Republican and Sabato’s Crystal Ball calling it Likely Republican, and Vindman has not yet secured the Democratic nomination against state Rep. Angie Nixon.