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Victoria Budget Claims First Surplus in Seven Years as Debt Tracks Toward $200 Billion

Analysts say the surplus does not signal a turnaround in Victoria’s finances.

Overview

  • Treasurer Jaclyn Symes tabled the budget Tuesday, forecasting a $727 million operating surplus in 2025–26 and $1 billion in 2026–27.
  • The surplus counts federal grants and excludes big construction projects, and higher Commonwealth revenue helped lift the balance.
  • Net debt is projected to reach $199.3 billion by 2029–30, pushing annual interest costs to about $11.8 billion or roughly $32 million a day.
  • The budget confirms pre‑announced cost‑of‑living relief, including two months of free public transport then half‑price fares and a 20% car‑registration refund worth about $1.2 billion combined.
  • Credit ratings remain investment‑grade with stable outlooks, but agencies warn temporary giveaways and looming wage deals could weaken fiscal metrics if not offset.