Overview
- Forecasters report a rapidly intensifying El Niño with Niño‑3.4 sea‑surface anomalies near +2.7°C in mid‑August and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center now gives better than 90% odds of a very strong event and about a 69% chance it could be one of the strongest on record.
- A new peer‑reviewed Science study using 1,000 years of Galápagos coral chemistry finds El Niño variability has increased roughly 36–40% over recent decades and, after model tests, attributes that strengthening largely to human‑driven warming.
- Forecasts expect the event to peak in late 2026 and linger into early 2027, which raises the probability that 2027 will be among the hottest years on record and prolongs seasonal shifts in weather patterns worldwide.
- Regional projections point to a warmer, wetter winter for parts of the U.S. Southeast and a warmer, lower‑snow winter for the Northeast, with elevated risks of drought in Asia and Australia and heavier rains and floods in parts of the Americas and Europe.
- Experts and agencies warn of second‑order threats to food supplies, water and transport systems — including lower canal drafts and fisheries stress — and urge preparedness and funding for emergency services, flood control and agricultural support.