Overview
- Major agencies confirmed in early September that El Niño has strengthened and is very likely to intensify into a very strong event that will probably last through February 2027.
- The warming is already producing real harms: Peru’s anchovy catches collapsed this year and Oxfam and Action Against Hunger report widespread maize and bean crop losses across parts of Central America.
- The World Health Organization has flagged India as facing high health risks because the event can raise heat stress and create conditions that favor mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria.
- Regional authorities are taking steps such as heat‑relief centres, volunteer mobilisation and early warnings while some agencies like the UAE’s NCM are publicly countering viral flood claims, but commentary warns national preparedness is uneven.
- El Niño works by shifting tropical Pacific temperatures and global circulation, which raises the risk of extreme weather in specific seasons and places; officials should watch October–November 2026 and March–May 2027 and prepare for higher food prices, power strain and localized floods or droughts.