Overview
- This week forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds above 90% that El Niño will be “very strong” this fall and estimated roughly a 69% chance it could exceed the modern record.
- Ocean measurements show exceptional warming: weekly Niño 3.4 values have climbed into the very strong range and subsurface heat has built into a large reservoir that can drive further surface warming.
- Observed sea levels in parts of the eastern Pacific are approaching or exceeding about one foot above average and are already about half a foot higher off California, raising baseline coastal water levels.
- California scientists warn the extra ocean height, higher storm surge potential and this year’s king tides could produce the highest recorded seas and amplified coastal flooding this winter.
- Researchers and aid groups say the event will redistribute rainfall worldwide—increasing drought risk in some cities and flood risk in others, threatening crops and water supplies and prompting urgent preparedness despite local uncertainties.