Overview
- Climate centres now show a very strong, possibly record-breaking El Niño with NOAA placing odds above 90 percent that the event will intensify through the second half of 2026.
- Global sea surface temperatures reached a daily record of 21.1°C on August 22, a sign that El Niño is adding heat on top of long-term ocean warming recorded by Copernicus.
- Forecasters expect the event to peak around October–December 2026 and to keep raising global temperatures into 2027, with the UK Met Office warning next year is likely to be the warmest on record.
- Human impacts are already appearing: the World Food Programme warns the event could push roughly 50 million more people into acute hunger and the Panama Canal Authority has tightened ship loading limits because of low water.
- Warmer seas will change weather patterns by feeding stronger storms and shifting rainfall, which raises flood and drought risks for regions including the Pacific, California, parts of South America and southern Africa.