Overview
- In early August, observations recorded Niño‑3.4 sea-surface anomalies near +1.9–2.1°C and NOAA now gives better than an 80 percent chance of a particularly strong El Niño peaking October–December 2026 with possible persistence into spring 2027.
- The event is unfolding on top of an already warmer climate because oceans have absorbed most anthropogenic heat, which increases the likelihood that 2026 or 2027 will set new global temperature records.
- Forecasters expect classic El Niño teleconnections: heavier rain and flood risk in parts of South America and Central America, and greater drought and fire risk in Australia, Southeast Asia and parts of the Amazon, with likely crop losses and higher food and commodity prices.
- Major agencies and scientists stress the forecast is probabilistic: models vary on peak strength and timing, regional impacts differ, and services such as Germany’s DWD caution that direct links to local weather in places like Bavaria are weak.
- Global ocean heat is extreme now—Copernicus reports about 82 percent of the ocean is unusually warm—and researchers and the UN warn the combination of this stored heat and a strong El Niño could cause major weather, health and economic harms over the coming years.