Overview
- The peer-reviewed analysis, published Thursday in Scientific Reports, finds Venice’s movable-barrier approach works only until sea level rises about 1.25 meters.
- Researchers model four choices for the next two centuries: enhance movable barriers, build ring dikes around central islands, close the lagoon with permanent dams, or relocate people and monuments inland.
- Ring dikes could shield the historic core up to roughly 6 meters of rise, with an estimated cost of €0.5–€4.5 billion, but they would cut the city off from its lagoon and likely hurt its culture and tourism.
- Fully closing the lagoon could resist about 10 meters of rise at a cost of at least €30 billion, yet it would destroy the lagoon ecosystem and end Venice’s role as a working port.
- Relocation is a last resort beyond about 4.5 meters of rise after 2300, with costs near €100 billion and major upheaval for residents, and the authors urge planning now since projects of this scale can take 30–50 years and MOSE was already raised 31 times from October 2023 to April 2024.