Overview
- The latest SWG weekly poll for TgLa7 shows Futuro Nazionale at 5.6% and the Lega at 5.4%, with Fratelli d’Italia slipping to 27.3% and Forza Italia to 7.2%.
- SWG’s aggregation places the current government coalition (FdI–FI–Lega–Noi moderati) at 41.1% versus a hypothetical broader centre‑left bloc at 43.4%, narrowing the governing majority’s margin.
- Multiple polling institutes have in recent weeks recorded Futuro Nazionale above the Lega, indicating a short‑term trend rather than a one‑off blip.
- Opposition numbers are stable to slightly up: the PD is at 21.8%, the Movimento 5 Stelle at 13.3%, Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra at 6.4%, and Italia Viva at 2.4%.
- Even single‑digit parties can decide outcomes in Italy’s coalition system, so Vannacci’s rise increases bargaining power on the right and could reshape coalition arithmetic ahead of the next election.