Overview
- VanEck’s June 16 report estimates a roughly $50 billion near-term funding shortfall for bitcoin miners shifting to AI hosting and up to $221 billion in total long-term capital needs, and finds only about 25% of leased AI and high-performance computing capacity is currently energized.
- The firm promotes 'gross energized power' as the clearest valuation metric, noting companies with signed, switched-on capacity such as Cipher Mining, Hut 8 and TeraWulf trade at more than 10 times energized power while mining-focused names trade at roughly 2–6 times.
- VanEck warns that announcements no longer suffice and that missed construction or commissioning milestones can trigger lasting 'structural de-ratings' for firms that lack proven project-management experience.
- Firms will rely on varied financing paths to bridge the gap, including monetizing Bitcoin treasuries (examples include Marathon, CleanSpark and Hut 8), equity or debt raises, structured asset financing, DeFi-style lending and possible REIT-style conversions.
- The pivot grew out of the 2024 Bitcoin halving that squeezed mining margins, and VanEck expects large-scale AI construction to accelerate only in 2027–2028, meaning investors, workers and customers face delayed capacity, higher funding costs, and more conditional deals in the near term.