Overview
- The University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released July 23 put Vice President JD Vance at 36 percent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26 percent, a major reversal from February when Vance led by a wide margin.
- Conservative commentators and online accounts have flooded social platforms with a 'Never Vance' campaign focused on his Iran diplomacy and comments about Israel, producing an unusually early and intense intra‑party backlash.
- Vance's July 15 Joe Rogan interview, in which he called himself a 'reasonable moderate' on Israel and dismissed critics, coincided with a sharp spike in criticism from pro‑Israel and hawkish Republican voices.
- Allies and multiple reports say portions of the attack show patterns suggesting inauthentic or coordinated activity, including accounts that appear not to be U.S.-based, while skeptics argue the backlash reflects genuine GOP policy disputes.
- Despite the pressure, Vance remains the leading Trump‑aligned contender and retains White House backing, but the polling slide and online fight have opened space for donor interest and rival boosters to lift Rubio.