Overview
- A mid‑July University of New Hampshire poll found Vice President JD Vance at 36 percent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26 percent in New Hampshire, and an Emerson national survey showed Vance and Rubio essentially tied at roughly 39–38 percent among GOP primary voters.
- Those July numbers mark a sharp swing from February’s UNH survey, when Vance led Rubio about 53 percent to 7 percent, showing a rapid erosion of Vance’s early advantage over six months.
- Conservative commentators and social accounts have mobilized a 'Never Vance' campaign focused on Vance’s role in negotiating a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding and his comments on Israel, activity that intensified after his July 15 Joe Rogan interview.
- Vance’s allies say much of the online attack looks inauthentic or coordinated, pointing to suspicious account patterns and some profiles that appear to be based outside the United States.
- Political analysts say the combination of tightening polls, an unusually early intra‑party revolt, and an unresolved Iran deal leaves Vance politically vulnerable going into the 2028 succession battle and increases the leverage of donors, Rubio backers, and President Trump’s eventual endorsement.