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6h ago

Vance’s 2028 Lead Faces New Scrutiny as Rubio Gains Attention and Wildcards Emerge

A signal from the president is seen as the lever that could decide the 2028 field.

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 24: Donald Trump Jr. attends the State of the Union address during a Joint Session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on February 24, 2026, in Washington, DC. Trump delivered his address days after the Supreme Court struck down the administration's tariff strategy and amid a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf threatening Iran. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Conservative media on Monday amplified a report by MS NOW’s Matthew Bartlett that MAGA activists say JD Vance is hard to reach and too quiet on the Iran war, with Raw Story and Alternet repeating complaints that he has not built ties with grassroots leaders.
  • Bartlett reported that the president has asked advisers to weigh Vance against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, echoing recent Politico sourcing that confidants view Rubio as a serious 2028 option and prompting fresh Washington chatter about a shift.
  • Vance still leads early indicators, with a late-April Harvard/Harris figure placing him at 48 percent in a hypothetical primary and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi listing him ahead of Rubio, according to The American Conservative.
  • The American Conservative also highlighted Donald Trump Jr. as a potential contender, citing YouGov data showing 31 percent would consider him and a Harvard/Harris reading of 18 percent support, with stronger interest among younger Republicans.
  • Veteran GOP strategist Rick Wilson argued in Raw Story that Tucker Carlson could follow a 2016-style media-first path through Iowa and New Hampshire, though this remains an outsider scenario and depends on how voters and platforms respond.