Overview
- Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that negotiations with Tehran will be “messy” and take time because competing factions inside Iran disagree over whether to end the conflict or press on.
- Vance told Fox News that the United States will press Iran using military, economic and diplomatic tools to secure terms that prevent a nuclear weapon and ease pressure on global oil markets.
- President Donald Trump has taken a more optimistic tone, saying this week that “a lot of progress” has been made and that clarity could come within 48 hours, while claiming Iranian officials initiated contact.
- Iranian officials continue to deny direct talks with Washington and rely on mediators such as Qatar, Oman and Pakistan to handle contacts, leaving the channels and timeline opaque.
- Markets and prediction markets have shifted expectations for a comprehensive deal—odds for inclusion of reconstruction funding moved in recent days to roughly 29–33%—reflecting investor skepticism about a fast, all‑in agreement after the June collapse of a 14‑point memorandum.