Overview
- The U.S. Space Force projects reentry around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10 with an uncertainty window of plus or minus 24 hours.
- NASA says most of the roughly 1,323‑pound spacecraft will burn up, though some components may survive, with an estimated injury risk of about 1 in 4,200.
- Precise timing and location remain hard to predict due to atmospheric dynamics, though any surviving debris is statistically more likely to fall over ocean.
- The mission, flown from 2012 to 2019 with a twin spacecraft, revealed key radiation‑belt physics including evidence of a transient third belt.
- Earlier forecasts pointed to a 2034 reentry, but solar‑maximum conditions increased atmospheric drag; the twin Probe B is not expected to reenter before 2030.