Vale Unveils Multi-Year Guidance and Glencore Copper Study, Targets Sub-$6 Billion Capex

Overview

• Vale guided iron ore output of 335 Mt in 2025, 335–345 Mt in 2026, and 360 Mt by 2030, with updated targets also provided for copper and nickel.
• Iron ore cost guidance points to C1 cash costs around US$21.3/t in 2025 and US$20–21.5/t in 2026, with all‑in costs at US$55/t in 2025 and US$52–56/t in 2026; copper all‑in remains US$1,000–1,500/t and nickel about US$13,000/t in 2025.
• Investments are set at US$1.2 billion for growth and US$4.3 billion for maintenance in 2025, moving to US$5.4–5.7 billion in 2026, with a long‑term goal to keep annual capex below US$6 billion.
• Project updates include Serra Sul+20 adding 20 Mt of high‑grade iron ore starting in H2 2026 and the Conceição II mine entering operation at the end of this month, with additional capacity from Serra Leste and N3 between 2026 and 2030.
• Vale Base Metals and Glencore signed an agreement to evaluate a Sudbury Basin copper development that could produce about 880,000 t over 21 years for US$1.6–2.0 billion, with engineering and licensing in 2026 and a potential FID in H1 2027.