Overview
- The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella’s Leading Index fell 0.58% in January (seasonally adjusted), putting the probability of a recession in the next six months at 99%.
- UTDT’s Martín González Rozada linked the index drop to declines in equity indexes, weaker industrial production and lower real VAT collection.
- Official data show activity stagnated through 2025 with a monthly contraction in November, while manufacturing logged a fifth straight decline and an 8.2% year‑on‑year fall.
- January CPI reached 2.9% with food and restaurants leading the rise, and LCG’s weekly survey shows food inflation accelerating in February, driven by meat up 1.9% in a week and 5.3% over four weeks.
- The BCRA has bought about USD 2.09 billion in FX this year and sold roughly USD 1.25 billion to the Treasury, as Treasury rollovers exceed 120% with high local rates that sustain peso carry demand.