Overview
- On Friday markets pulled back after reports that negotiators from Qatar were in Iran and President Trump said talks with Iran would continue, lifting expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to tanker traffic.
- Brent dropped to about $76 a barrel and WTI to about $71 on the news even though both benchmarks still showed weekly gains versus the prior week.
- The fall in crude has started to show up at the pump, with Spain reporting lower retail fuel prices after the recent easing in oil futures.
- Security tensions remain high because reciprocal US–Iran strikes and recent explosions in southern Iran caused casualties and President Trump issued stern military warnings, keeping the risk of renewed supply disruption active.
- The IEA noted that transit through the Strait surged in June because of a prior ceasefire and warned that fresh escalation could erase expected surplus next year, so markets remain sensitive to both diplomatic progress and new military events while some commentary advances broader geopolitical interpretations.