Overview
- U.S. forces launched strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iran fired back, a round of exchanges that has pushed Brent toward $95 a barrel and WTI above $90.
- Global government bond yields jumped to multi‑year highs, with the U.S. 10‑year Treasury around 4.8% and Japan’s 10‑year above 3%, increasing borrowing costs for governments and businesses.
- Equity markets fell as higher yields and energy prices reduced appetite for risk, hitting long‑duration technology stocks hardest while energy producers gained.
- Market pricing for a September Federal Reserve rate increase rose to roughly two‑thirds probability after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and fresh inflation pressure from the oil spike.
- The Strait of Hormuz carries about one‑fifth of world oil flows, so continued hostilities could keep supply fears and inflation elevated and make upcoming U.S. labor and inflation reports decisive for policy and markets.