Overview
- Renewed exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces have driven daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz to multi‑week lows, with shipping data showing as few as three oil tankers in a single day.
- Oil benchmarks jumped on Monday as traders added a shipping disruption premium, pushing Brent above $90 a barrel and WTI toward the mid‑$80s.
- Gulf producers had raised exports to roughly 12–13 million barrels per day in early July after a short‑lived US–Iran transit agreement lapsed, but recent strikes have cut actual daily sailings and forced rerouting.
- Saudi Arabia shifted most July exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, and Reuters sources say Iran told Houthi forces to be ready to threaten Red Sea navigation if U.S. strikes hit Iranian energy infrastructure.
- Analysts warn low global oil inventories, reduced daily tanker flows, and expanding shipping threats raise the chance of wider supply squeezes that could lift prices further and disrupt regional oil revenues and fuel supplies for consumers.