Overview
- The United States and Iran reached a 60‑day interim memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing set for Friday, June 19 in Switzerland.
- Markets quickly priced in a return of Gulf exports, pushing Brent toward about $78 a barrel and U.S. WTI into the mid‑$70s while U.S. pump averages eased to roughly $4.04 per gallon with about 25 states below $4.
- Industry and transport groups warn that mine clearance, more than 500 vessels waiting to transit, and cautious insurers and shipping firms will make a physical restart gradual and measured over weeks to months.
- The International Energy Agency says demand this year has fallen sharply and projects an about 8 million barrels‑per‑day supply rebound in 2027 that could create a significant market overhang next year.
- Consumers should expect uneven, delayed relief because refiners buy crude in advance, inventories must be rebuilt, and regional limits such as West Coast refining capacity will keep some pump prices elevated.