Overview
- Renewed exchanges of strikes between U.S. forces and Iran have hit ships and coastal infrastructure and cut crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative Red Sea corridors.
- Market reactions pushed Brent into the high $80s to low $90s per barrel and lifted U.S. retail gasoline averages back to about $4 per gallon, reflecting crude and refining constraints.
- Mexico's finance ministry restored weekly IEPS fiscal stimuli for July 18–24, setting support at Magna 1.49 pesos per liter, Premium 0.47 pesos per liter, and diesel 3.73 pesos per liter to blunt pump-price rises.
- Goldman Sachs warned that Brent could top $120 per barrel in a persistent-disruption scenario while keeping a base case near $80 per barrel, and analysts cite low inventories and refinery capacity limits as amplifiers of risk.
- If the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, shipments rerouted through the Red Sea face attacks that would tighten global supply further and raise prices for consumers and businesses, with political pressure on President Trump ahead of the midterm elections.